Interactive effects of climate change and fire on metapopulation viability of a forest-dependent frog in south-eastern Australia

TD Penman; DA Keith; J Elith; MJ Mahony; R Tingley; JB Baumgartner; TJ Regan

Journal article

Interactive effects of climate change and fire on metapopulation viability of a forest-dependent frog in south-eastern Australia

TD Penman, DA Keith, J Elith, MJ Mahony, R Tingley, JB Baumgartner, TJ Regan

Biological Conservation | Published : 2015

DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2015.05.020

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Abstract

Climate change directly affects the suitability of habitats for species, but also indirectly alters natural disturbances such as fire, which can negatively impact species' persistence. Developing accurate predictions of climate change impacts requires estimates of the interactive effects of climate and disturbance regimes at both population and landscape scales. Here we couple a habitat suitability model with a population viability model to examine the interactive effects of climate change and altered fire regimes on a fire-responsive frog species across its geographic range in south-eastern Australia. By 2100, we predict expected minimum abundances (EMA) to decline by 66% (under GFDL-CM2 A1..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Trent Penman Author

Jane Elith Author

Tracey Regan Author

John Baumgartner Author

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Grants

Awarded by Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Australian Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

The study was funded by the Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis. Additional funding was received from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions. TP was funded by the NSW Rural Fire Service. DK was funded by Australian Research Council Grant LP0989537 - Australia. TR, RT and JB were funded by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions. JE was funded by ARC Future Fellowship Grant FT0991640 - Australia. Discussions with Frank Lemckert and David Hunter aided the development of the manuscript.